ACCELERATIONS-2
To apply MD-ECA to existing data, there is need of massive educational undertaking.
It is necessary to quantify the acceleration of surplus production (or change in the flow-rate dQ"/Q") and the acceleration of basic production (or change in the flow-rate dQ’/Q’), not lumped together but separately. On page114, there is a tabulation of these two flow-rates in two ways: (1) as related to each other at various phases and (2) as each flow-rate changes within a given phase. This table is a tool for identifying the phase movements for the recurrent business cycle (of booms and slumps) and for a theoretical "pure cycle" (of fast booms and slow booms and no slumps).
But are the flow-rates of surplus products (dQ"/Q") and the flow-rates of basic products (dQ’/Q’) available from existing data? Yes, but they are still latent in the existing formats of statistical data, and will have to be dug out from these formats. These formats are generally in input-output tables published from time to time for the purpose of obtaining information about the STATIC equilibrium or disequilibrium prevailing in a given year. (For information about DYNAMIC equilibrium or disequilibrium, there is need for two or more input-output tables over a time interval.)
Furthermore, if the data on output products indiscriminately lump the surplus products and basic products together, it will be necessary to separate these into two aggregates. Thus, there is need of two input-output tables for each year.
Separating data on surplus products from data on basic products involves the problem that such data are generally obtained, not from the many different consumers, but from the one producer of the products. But a producer cannot know beforehand if the products are to be bought by a consumer of consumer-products or by a consumer of producer-products. (For example, a leather factory produces leather that can be consumed either by an individual shoe-maker or by a shoe-factory) The proprietor of that leather factory cannot separate his data on surplus products from his data on basic products. The distinction between surplus products and basic products is not a "proprietary" distinction but a functional distinction (p. 26).
By functional distinction, Lonergan means the distinction between a mathematical function and its first derivative, and the distinction between a first derivative and its second derivative. For example, the first derivative could be the flow-rate of so many shoes every so often (20 pairs of shoes every month) and its second derivative the flow-rate of so many shoes more every so often (20 pairs of shoes in January, 25 pairs in February, 30 pairs in March, or 5 pairs more each month). The second derivative mathematically "accelerates" the flow-rate of pairs every month by 5 more pairs.
In the example of a leather factory, if its proprietor cannot understand the functional distinction between the flow-rate of shoe sales (20 pairs per month) and the ACCELERATION of this flow-rate (5 more pairs per month), or if he does not see the purpose of the functional distinction, he would just LUMP the data on his leather sales without the functional distinction.
What is said of the proprietor of a leather factory can also be said of all decision-makers in regard to the production, not only of goods, but also of services, especially financial services. Financial services can be much more complicated in the modern uses of money. Here, the acceleration concept can extend to the third, fourth and higher derivatives of monetary flow-rates. For example, one can now repeatedly buy more money with less money, e.g. as a gambler speculating on futures often does. Such gambling speculations can be highly profitable during boom times and very addictive. But such addiction usually lasts far beyond the life span of a boom and, when the boom eventually slows down or ceases, the tendency to speculation can lead to serious dysequilibrium. Speculators can consume a large volume of the financial services of the banking industry as it exists today.
[It is reported in 1996 that "well over 90 percent of all foreign exchange transactions are of a purely speculative nature, against less than 10 percent for all investments and trade for goods and services throught the world." (See "The World’s Monetary System" ed. by Griesgraber & Gunter, published in 1996 by Center of Concern in Washington, D.C.) Thus, there is a huge SURPLUS production of financial "services" without accountability - actually a disservice to dynamic equilibrium of global economy. A small disequilibrium abets criminality, leading to market volatility; volatility encourges financial speculation leading to bigger disequilibrium. If this negative cycle is not reversed by a massive educational undertaking, the long-term effect of such negative "service" and of such magnitude can be a global crash that wipes out income for all including the speculators. Thus, to LUMP data on surplus and basic production of goods and services (and disservices) together signals the urgent need for all decision-makers to understand the concept of accelerations in the economy.]
The quantitative interactions between the basic and surplus production, between basic and surplus expansions, and between basic and surplus incomes, could yield more determinate and more accurate information on which to base forecasting and decision-making for the purpose of maintaining or raising the standard of living of the poorest sectors. When data are indiscriminately lumped together, decision-makers have to rely on indeterminate information and their decisions become highly speculative and more prone to error. Even small errors put low-income communities too much at risk of starvation.
Thus, the problem of discriminating between data on surplus production and data on basic production remains unsolved. The solution depends on massive educational undertaking. For the entire economy to function intelligently, there is need to educate all the consumers, laborers, traders, producers and financiers, i.e. the entire population participating in the economy. Where does this education start? It starts with the notion of "acceleration", in both the productive process and in the circulation of payments.
It is now possible to facilitate this educational task with computer simulations and animations.
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